Preseason Rankings
Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#168
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.0#333
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#251
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#106
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 5.3% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.2% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.3 12.2 13.1
.500 or above 44.8% 51.0% 25.3%
.500 or above in Conference 38.4% 41.9% 27.4%
Conference Champion 3.5% 4.1% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 14.6% 12.2% 22.1%
First Four0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
First Round4.1% 4.9% 1.8%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Prairie View (Neutral) - 75.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 55 - 11
Quad 47 - 212 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 302   Prairie View W 70-62 76%    
  Nov 29, 2020 124   Winthrop L 69-72 39%    
  Dec 02, 2020 325   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 70-62 77%    
  Dec 05, 2020 229   Southern Miss W 67-60 72%    
  Dec 23, 2020 234   Nicholls St. W 70-63 73%    
  Mar 08, 2021 64   @ Northern Iowa L 58-70 14%    
  Mar 08, 2021 76   @ Loyola Chicago L 56-67 18%    
  Mar 08, 2021 117   @ Bradley L 61-68 28%    
  Mar 08, 2021 122   @ Indiana St. L 61-68 29%    
  Mar 08, 2021 135   @ Missouri St. L 63-68 33%    
  Mar 08, 2021 144   @ Drake L 63-68 35%    
  Mar 08, 2021 155   @ Valparaiso L 65-69 36%    
  Mar 08, 2021 188   Illinois St. W 67-63 64%    
  Mar 08, 2021 261   Evansville W 68-60 75%    
  Mar 09, 2021 64   Northern Iowa L 61-67 31%    
  Mar 09, 2021 76   Loyola Chicago L 59-64 34%    
  Mar 09, 2021 117   Bradley L 64-65 47%    
  Mar 09, 2021 122   Indiana St. L 64-65 48%    
  Mar 09, 2021 135   Missouri St. W 66-65 52%    
  Mar 09, 2021 144   Drake W 66-65 54%    
  Mar 09, 2021 155   Valparaiso W 68-66 56%    
  Mar 09, 2021 188   @ Illinois St. L 64-66 46%    
  Mar 09, 2021 261   @ Evansville W 65-63 58%    
Projected Record 11 - 12 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.7 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.0 2.7 0.7 0.1 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.0 2.7 0.6 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.3 5.1 2.8 0.5 0.0 12.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.0 5.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 13.3 7th
8th 0.3 1.8 4.6 4.8 1.9 0.3 13.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.7 4.5 3.5 1.3 0.3 13.1 9th
10th 0.5 1.6 2.8 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 9.3 10th
Total 0.5 1.7 3.5 5.6 7.7 9.7 10.8 11.3 10.7 10.2 8.7 6.7 4.9 3.5 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 91.7% 0.6    0.5 0.1
15-3 70.4% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 41.7% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1
13-5 17.1% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 95.8% 54.2% 41.7% 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.9%
17-1 0.2% 83.6% 33.9% 49.7% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.2%
16-2 0.6% 66.0% 43.4% 22.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 40.0%
15-3 1.4% 48.5% 24.1% 24.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 32.1%
14-4 2.2% 31.0% 24.5% 6.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.5 8.6%
13-5 3.5% 17.4% 13.8% 3.6% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.9 4.2%
12-6 4.9% 9.7% 9.0% 0.7% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.8%
11-7 6.7% 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.1 0.0%
10-8 8.7% 3.5% 3.5% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.4
9-9 10.2% 3.1% 3.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.9
8-10 10.7% 1.3% 1.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.6
7-11 11.3% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 11.3
6-12 10.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.7
5-13 9.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.7
4-14 7.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.7
3-15 5.6% 5.6
2-16 3.5% 3.5
1-17 1.7% 1.7
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 4.4% 3.5% 0.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 95.6 0.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%